Sistemi i Pamposhtur

The Martingale is the most popular betting system in the world. It is also called the “doubling-up system” and can be applied to any even money bet. When playing a casino game, the amount of the first bet is simply doubled after each successive loss, until one wins. After each win, the bet is reduced to its initial value and remains there until the next loss. When one wins, one wins one unit. For example, an 11-step martingale would be : 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024 = 2047 units. That is a large amount to risk simply to win one unit ! Read More about Martingale System Here

If you use this strategy for a casino game such as roulette, craps or at sports betting, the danger is that eventually a long string of losses will keep increasing the amount of your bet until the table limit or the betting limit is reached.

Even with a low winning percentage of 30% and a long losing streak of 10-15 in a row, you’ll still be a winner! That is why I call it “the unbeatable sports betting system”.

We will use a modified martingale. We will start by betting the amount to win our target. We will be doing this until a win. If we win our first bet, we start over again. If we don’t win our first bet, we will bet the sum of the first 3 bets. So a win will erase 3 loses. Every time we lose, we keep betting for the same target. Only when we win, we will bet the sum of the first 3 bets (remaining bets). With this system, when we lose, we go one step backwards, and when we win we go 3 steps ahead.

Bankroll: I can’t tell you exactly what bankroll you need because the odds are changing everyday. But I think that a bankroll of 200 units would be reasonable.

The bet size will be calculated with the odds offer by the bookmakers.

The formula is: B = T / (IT-1)

  • B = Amount to bet
  • T= Target (amount you want to win)
  • IT= International odds

Let’s say you want to win $50 at 2.20. $50 / (2.20-1) = $50 / 1.20 = $41.66 L-L-L-W-L-L-W-W

Here’s how it works: You need to bet $41.66 to win $50. $41.66 X 2.20 = $91.66 – $41.66 = $50

Let’s see what happen with a 37.5% winning rate and a target of $50.

Day 1

Write down your target of $50 you want to make. You bet $54.95 to win $50 The odds are 1.91 You lose. Write down the $54.95 bet next to the $50 you had written down. It should look like this. $50 + $54.95 Day 2

The odds are 2.15 When you lose, your target still the same. So, here it’s $50 again. Your next bet is TARGET / (2.15 – 1). So it’s $50 / 1.15 = $43.48 You should bet $43.48 You lose.

Write down the $43.48 bet next to the previous two bets. Now it looks like this. $50 + $54.95 + $43.48 147

Day 3

The odds are 1.83 You lose. Write down the $60.24 bet next to the previous three bets. Now it looks like this. $50 + $54.95 + $43.48 + $60.24 Our target is the same until a win. Your next bet is TARGET / (1.83 – 1). So it’s $50.00 / 0.83 = $60.24 You should bet $60.24

Day 4

The odds are 2.10 Your next bet is TARGET / (2.10 – 1). So it’s $50.00 / 1.10 = $45.45 You should bet $45.45 You win. Cross out the first target you have written down. You do this (cross out the target) only after a win. That leaves you with the $54.95 bet, the $43.48 bet and the $60.24 bet. Now it looks like this. $50 + $54.95 + $43.48 + $60.24

Day 5

The odds are 1.99 After the first win, the new target is the sum of the first three numbers we have written down. In our case we have $54.95, $43.48 and $60.24. So, our next target is $158.67. The next bet is TARGET / (1.99 – 1). So in our case it’s $158.67 / 0.99 = $160.27 Your next bet should be $160.27 You lose. Write down this bet next to the previous three bets. It looks like this. $54.95 + $43.48 + $60.24 + $160.27 148

Day 6

The odds are 1.75 Your next bet is the TARGET / (1.75 – 1). So it’s $158.67 / 0.75 = $211.56 Your bet should be $211.56 You lose. Write down this bet next to the previous four bets. $54.95 + $43.48 + $60.24 + $160.27 + $211.56

Day 7

The odds are 2.45 Your next bet is the TARGET / (2.45 – 1). So it’s $158.67 / 1.45 = $109.43. Your bet should be $109.43. You win. Cross out the first three bets (OUR TARGET). That leaves us with… $54.95 + $43.48 + $60.24 + $160.27 + $211.56 Day 8 The odds are 1.90 You win. The session is over. You have recovered from all your loses and made a $50 profit. Your next target the sum of the two remaining bets / (1.90 – 1). Since we don’t have 3 numbers written down, we bet on only the sum of the two remaining bets. So it’s $371.83 / 0.90 = $413.14 You should bet $413.14

You won 3 bets and lost 5 bets. Winning rate: 37.5%

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Extended Martingale Betting System

Martingale betting system

In our site we have explained in details the Martingale Betting System.

The system, which we are going to explain in this article, shall be read as an extension of the Martingale System. If you haven’t read yet please read here.

As a summary of the Martingale we can say that this betting system is based on doubling the stake after each lost up to the moment when we will have a winning bet. End than we start from the beginning.

Expressed on a tabular way will look like this:

No. Bet Sequence Stake Tot.stake Odd Result Expecting +/-
1 Bet No.1 1 1 2.0 Win 2.0 1
2 Bot No.2 1 1 2.0 Loose 2.0 -1
3 Bet No.3 2 3 2.5 Loose 5.0 -3
4 Bet No.4 4 7 2.2 Win 8.8 1.8
5 Bet No.5 1 1 2.6      

The extended Martingale System follows the same strategy but change the multiplier.

The multiplier is the increasing factor of the stake and on this betting system will be calculated taking in consideration the current Odd and a fixed profit.

The odd (O) is different and is depending on the selected match.

The profit (P) will be determined by 3 factors:

  1. Your Budget. (B)
  2. Number of sequence. (i)
  3. Minimum Odd (will be used 2 as per normal Martingale System)

Lets express the formula:

P = B /(2^(i-1)*2-1)

Example:

B = 1000 € , I = 5 rounds

P = 1000/(2^(5-1)*2-1)= 32.26 € Lets round P = 30 €

Next step is to determine the first stake (S).

The stake is depending on the odd and the expected profit.

S = P/(O-1)

Example

P = 30 € , O = 2.50, S = 30/(2.5-1) = 20 €

From this point and forward on any win we start from the first stake. In case of loose the next stake will be calculated as follows:

Sn= (P+Sum(previous Stakes))/(O-1)

Example

Lets consider we have lost 2 consecutive stakes

Stake 1

P = 30 € , O = 2.50, S1 = 30/(2.5-1) = 20 €                                Lost

P = 30 € , O = 2.20, S2 = (30+20)/(2.2-1) = 41.6 €                   Lost

P = 30 € , O = 2.30, S3 = (30+20+41.6)/(2.3-1) = 70.5 €        Won

Total stake is 70.5+41.6+20 = 132.1 €

Return from last stake will be 70.5*2.3=162.15

So the profit is 30 € equal to expected profit.

That’s all my friends. I know that’s look a bit difficult and complicated but it’s a good system to manage your pocket when using progressive systems.

As conclusion there are some recommendations to follow

  1. Find odds bigger than 2.1 preferable draw matches (odd around 3.0)
  2. Stick to your budget and fix your stop loos.
  3. If you are not familiar with arithmetic’s use the excel file. Download here.

 

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Shkembim Golash

This method is based on trading before a goal is scored using bet exchange. I prefer to use BetFair market to do this. You may think that is a risky, but there are various ways to minimize this risk.

Firstly, you need to find the under/over 2.5 goals market on any given match.

The important rule of this system is to make sure that the “Under 2.5 Goals” selection is over 1.90 on BetFair market .

Why 1.90?

This is because it means that it’s obviously going to be a tight game so there is not a large number of goals expected. Maybe 1-0, 1-1. 1-2 either way.
This method works as follows.
Prior to kick off you place a Lay bet on the OVER 2.5 goals.

The aim is to trade off every 5 minutes. The prices will continuously be rising, providing there is no goal.

Within the first 5 minutes, the price should rise to at least 1.95.

Lets say we placed our lay bet of €100 at odds of 1.91.

Calculations would be as follows:

€100 x 1.91 = €91 liability

We wait 5 minutes after kick off. The price has now risen to 1.99. We now want to

BACK the selection to trade it off for a guaranteed profit.

The calculations would be as follows.

€100 x 1.99 = €99 profit.

Trade = Profit – Liability which would give us a guaranteed profit of €8.

Now this doesn’t seem like much, but if you constantly repeat this method throughout

a game you could profit heavily.

The best plan is to use the following structure for this method to maximize profit.

  1. Complete this trade twice.
  2. Wait for a goal.
  3. Complete the trade twice once more.

I recommend doing it in that order. This has been tried and tested on various matches and the best plan to stick to is the one above.

So to review the rules of the system, they are as follows.

  1. Make sure you select the Over/Under 2.5 goals.
  2. The odds of “Over 2.5 goals” must be 1.90 or more.
  3. Follow the system structure.

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Bet on Bottom

This system is based on betting on the bottom Teams of each Football League. According to the statistics the Teams on the relegation zone have a percentage of loosing over 85%.

So once 10 games of the season have been played, bet a Treble Accumulator . Every week look for the bottom placed team with the least points. Then bet a 1 unit single on who ever is playing them.

Logic

The Logic behind this is that once 10 games have been played, the form has usually settled down, and the teams

at the bottom of the leagues at this point, can usually be expected to stay there or thereabouts for the rest of the

season. It is not expected that they will win many games, and you are simply betting on their weakness as

opposed to any strength their opponents may have.

Use of arithmetic 

Description can be found here

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Bet On Top

This system is based on betting on the top Teams of each Football League. According to the statistics the top 3 Teams have a percentage of winning over 50%.

So once 10 games of the season have been played, bet a Treble Accumulator  combining the leaders of each league.

Logic

The Logic behind this is that once 10 games have been played, the form has usually settled down, and the

stronger teams are usually on top. You also tend to find that in lower divisions, one or two teams

run away with things. This means that they are obviously going to win a lot of games, and you are simply

combining them with the other divisions ‘leaders to maximise the odds.

Use of Arithmetic to increase the profit.

Lets consider that we are following only this leagues:

  1. English Premier League
  2. French League 1
  3. Spanish Primera Divizion
  4. German Bundesliga
  5. Italian Seria A

We choose top 2 teams of each League. So we have 10 teams. Now lets divide them in 2 groups. The leaders in group A and the seconds in group B

Every week we combine this teams on treble bet . In total we will have 10 Bets for each group. so in total 20 bets.

On this way we have increase the chances to win at least one bet.

This system can be combined with Fibonacci Betting Strategy or Martingale betting system.

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Accumulators – Combos Betting Guide

It is called Combination or Accumulator as well. This type of bet is the most dangerous one. Because you have to predict all the true outcomes of each match in your coupon.

We told you that you have %33 chance to win your bet in Standard Bet(for soccer games) part. Consider you bet on 3 game-Combo on soccer. This means you have 1/27 chance to cash this coupon.

If you dont have any good strategy, use combo betting rarely. Lets examine the situations and you can understand better.

Example

Arsenal v Charlton – Arsenal – 1.50
Galatasaray v Bursa – Galatasaray – 1.25
PAOK v Olympiakos – PAOK +0.5 – 1.95
Man Utd v Fulham – Over2.5 – 1.65

* The combo bet shown above has 1.50 X 1.25 X 1.95 X 1.65 =6.03 odds. Consider you bet 100 and if all the chosen bets wins, you get 603 back. 603-100 = 503 is your profit.

However, if any of these bets loses, you lose your 100 too. All the bets in combo bet must be true to cash the coupon.

The bookmakers want their members to bet on combo bets because combo bet has the lowest probability to come true. We recommend you to bet on singles instead of combos.

However if you like combo, before placing the bet read here to learn about combo systems.

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Sure bet guide

You win in any case via a sure bet for sure as the name talks itself. It is based on following bookmakers odds and finding out a possible outcome over %100 outcome. Sometimes some of the bookmakers offer mad offers for a team and the others offers low odds for the same team. Take a look at example.

Sure Bet Example

Bookmaker A offers:

Game – Trabzon vs Rize
Home Win – 1.50
Draw – 3.75
Away Win – 4.75

Bookmaker B offers:

Game – Trabzon vs Rize
Home Win – 1.75
Draw – 3.20
Away Win – 4.00

Bookmaker C offers:

Game – Trabzon vs Rize
Home Win – 1.35
Draw – 3.50
Away Win – 7.00 **

We see Trabzon v Rize game offers from Bookmaker A, B and C above. Bookmaker A offers the best for Draw, Bookmaker B offers the best for Home Win and Bookmaker C offers the best for Away Win.

Home Win: 1.75
Draw: 3.75
Away Win: 7.00

We need a short calculation. We want to win 100$ and lets calculate:

======================================================
Home: 100$ / 1.75 = 57.14$ must be wagered to win 100$
Draw: 100$ / 3.75 = 26.67$ must be wagered to win 100$
Away: 100$ / 7.00 = 14.28$ must be wagered to win 100$

Total wagered money: 57.14$ + 26.67$ + 14.28$ = 98.09$
======================================================

Finally we staked 98.09$ to win 100$ in any case. It does not matter the game ends tie, home win or away win. Our profit is 1.91$. It means %1.94 profit of the total wagered money. As you can see above, sure bet offers you profit in any case. However, you have to follow the odds and know the limits of your bookmakers.

Your profit must be more than the fees you pay for money transfers or taxes.

If you want to learn more about this read this article or you can download here the full PDF Book.

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Arbitrage Boot Camp

Arbitrage Boot Camp

What is Sports Arbitrage?

Arbitrage is the process of finding advantages of price differentials.

In sport terms, arbitrage involves betting on all possible outcomes of a sporting event, exploiting high odds from bookmakers to guarantee a profit. The situation occurs when both bookmakers have sufficiently high odds on each side of an event. You place a bet covering all outcomes of the game, and are guaranteed a profit. Arbitrage situations happen regularly, hundreds of times every day. Online sports arbitrage trading has existed for almost a decade, and a lot of people have made (and still are making) good money from it.

How does it work?

The easiest way to explain an arbitrage is with an example.

The simplest example is an event with only two possible outcomes, such as a tennis game or goal over under soccer game. In all of this events will be a winner.

Lets take an example of a Over/Under 2.5 soccer game (See explanation of type of game here)

Type of Bet Bet365 odd 10Bet odd
Over 2.5 1.85 1.65
Under 2.5 1.85 2.20

What we need to do is to compare the highest odds of both bookmakers. On this case for over 2.5 we take Bet365 odd 1.85 and for under we use 10Bet odd 2.20 . If we have a 500 Euro budget we split our money investment on both bets following the steps:

  1. Calculate Arbitrage Percentage
  2. Calculate individual bets
  3. Calculate profit

Step 1 Calculation:

100/Odd

In our example

Bet on Over will be 100/1.850 = 54.05% ,Bet on under will be 100/2.20 = 45.45% and total Arbitrage percentage will be 54.05+45.45=99.5%

Step 2 Calculation:

(Investment*Individual Percentage)/Total Arbitrage Percentage

In our example

Bet on Over will be 500* 54.05%/99.5% = 271.61 Euro  ,Bet on under will be 500* 45.45%/99.5% = 228.39 Euro.In total 500 Euro as per budget.

Step 3 Calculation:

(Investment/Total Percentage)-Investment

In our example

500/99.5% – 500 = 2.51 Euro

Why isn’t everyone doing it?

Until now, the existing tools have been very difficult to use (and to be honest very poor quality). A sport arbitrage opportunity doesn’t exist for very long, usually between 1 to 10 minutes. This mean that it’s crucial that you get as close to real-time odds as you can from the bookmakers, It’s not much worth to get “free arbitrage text messages” for instance.

However now there are a lot of real opportunities to archive a good arbitrage service. One of the best Arbitrage software which we recommend is Rebel Betting Arbitrage Software.

Earnings

You can expect to make up to 15% per month of your total arbitrage bankroll.

If you want to learn more about Arbitrage you can download here the full PDF Book.

 

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Martingale betting system

Martingale betting system

Martingale system is invented by casinos. This wagering system is based on doubling your money after each loser bet and turning back to the first step after each winner bet. For instance, you staked 10$ on a %50 chance bet with 2.00 odds. If you lose the bet, you place X2 of your previous stake. You lose the 2nd bet too? So, you go on doubling your stakes until you win a bet.

Martingale strategy example

Lets assume that you are expecting a profit of 10$.

STEP 1 1st Bet – Stake 10$ = Lost
STEP 2 2nd Bet – Stake 20$ = Lost
STEP 3 3rd Bet – Stake 40$ = Lost
STEP 4 4th Bet – Stake 80$ = Lost
STEP 5 5th Bet – Stake 160$ = WON (So, we go back to the first step = 10$)
STEP 1 6th Bet – Stake 10$ = WON (We won again. It means we go on with first step)
STEP 1 7th Bet – Stake 10$ Lost (We jump on Step 2 for next bet
STEP 2 and so on.

As you can see above, we won the 5th Bet and our profit will be 160$-(10+20+40+80)$ = 10$. It is the rule of Martingale strategy. You get the same profit after any win anywhere. We won the 6th Bet too. Our profit is 10$ again after this winner bet. If we cannot win until 7th Bet, our total wager will be 1270$ (10$+20$+40$+80$+160$+320$+640$). Losing 7 in a row is not impossible and I am sure it can happen to even very best punters in long term.

The martingale strategy is mostly used on roulette, betting on colours and is based on probability which theoretically is 50%.(only for a large number of the series)

Conclusion – Why to avoid Martingale

Nevertheless, a lot of punters use this strategy or something based on this as their premier wagering strategy. Maybe they don’t know how it is dangerous. We never suggest our members to use this system. This is absolutely non-sense and any bookmaker is absolutely happy when his members use this. In long term, there is no possibility to win money by Martingale.

Bookmakers have their wager limits and they will not let you wager more than limits or you will bankrupt without a final winner bet.

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  • Top 5 Tipsters

    # Username pike
    1 hunteralb 1308.00
    2 trfoti 1231.00
    3 tipsterking 1000.00
    4 oddkiller 1450.00
    5 craigfeguson 1000.00