(English) SPAIN VS ALBANIA PREDICTIONS

SPAIN VS ALBANIA PREDICTIONS, BETTING TIPS AND MATCH PREVIEWS

na vjen keq, materiali qe po kerkoni te lexoni nuk disponohet ne gjuhen Anglishte Amerikane. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.

Spain are on the verge of qualifying from their group, having taken a three point lead over Italy last month. That’s put them on the verge of a place in Russia, but the three point gap between them means they’re not completely certain of a place at the World Cup. Can they move one step closer with a victory over Albania this week?

The hosts are obviously heavy favourites to pull off a result, especially given that they come in to this game with an unbeaten home record in World Cup qualifiers. In fact, their last defeat in World Cup qualifying overall came back in the 90s, so it’s difficult to see past the 2010 world champions in this clash.

Albania may have qualified for the Euros last year, but they’ve barely been close to contending for a play-off spot, with Spain and Italy to contend with. However, the visitors have been holding their own in their campaign, losing three games, two of those against Spain and Italy. They were heavily beaten 3-0 by Israel, but the Albanians seem to be able to organise themselves for these big games. They showed that by staying in contention at the Euros last year, finishing third in their group.

The visitors have a solid away record too, with just five defeats on the road in the last four and a half years. Of those losses, four were by a single goal, while they lost 2-0 away to Italy. The Albanians travelled to Portugal, Serbia, Denmark and Armenia in the Euro 2016 qualifiers and kept a clean sheet in every game, so they’re obviously tough to break down. When you consider that Real are without an experienced out and and out striker this week, they’re going to find goals tough to come by.

We think Isco will play a key role in unlocking Albania, especially after his double for Real Madrid last weekend. The playmaker scored three times for Spain in the last international break, while he’s got four goals in just three starts in this campaign. His good form has booked him a place in this side, and we’re backing him to score any time at 1.83 with bet365.

However, we can’t see too many goals for Spain, who are looking light up front for this clash. With Albania seeing under 3.5 goals in their last 17 World Cup qualifiers, and in all of their last 15 competitive defeats, we’re backing Spain to win and under 3.5 goals in this game at 2.1 with bet365.

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(English) KOSOVO VS UKRAINE PREDICTIONS

KOSOVO VS UKRAINE PREDICTIONS, BETTING TIPS AND MATCH PREVIEWS

na vjen keq, materiali qe po kerkoni te lexoni nuk disponohet ne gjuhen Anglishte Amerikane. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.

As things stand, Group I is one the of tightest groups in European qualification, there are two matches left to play and still four teams who could potentially finish top of the pile. Two points behind Croatia before kick-off on match-day nine, Ukraine need to win this match and then go on to win their final match, which is at home to the Croats. Against a Kosovo side who have no hope of making it to Russia, the Ukrainians should be confident of recording a good victory which sees them go into matchday-10 full of confidence.

Much like another of Friday’s Group I matches (Croatia v Finland), this match sees one team come in as massive favourites. Ukraine are priced around the 1/9 mark and are duly expected to hose up. However, not only have the visitors’ performances of late been shaky, but Kosovo have actually begun to acquit themselves better. The bet that stands out ahead of this match is ‘Kosovo to Score Over 0.5 Goals’ at odds of 2.50.

Since earning the right to compete as a nation in their own right, Kosovo have performed better than expected. They are thought of as minnows, and have indeed struggled when it comes to winning games; a point against Finland in their first ever competitive fixtures remains their only point to date. However, their performances in recent times have improved and they’re beginning to enjoy better attacking luck. Against a Ukrainian side who need to have go, the hosts could very easily surprise a few by registering themselves on the score-sheet. After all, goals against both Iceland and Turkey bode well, while their performance, despite being shutout, against Finland in their most recent fixture was also positive.

Not only have Kosovo shown something going forward of late, but Ukraine have begun to show clear deficiencies defensively, especially away from home. Despite playing away from home four times in qualifying, Ukraine are still yet to keep a clean sheet on the road. There’s certainly hope for the Kosovan’s here.

 

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(English) MONTENEGRO VS DENMARK PREDICTIONS

MONTENEGRO VS DENMARK PREDICTIONS, BETTING TIPS AND MATCH PREVIEWS

his is a massive game for both sides with 2nd place in Group E up for grabs. Poland look likely to win the group but with these sides tied on 16 points, there’s almost a play-off feel to this match and there’s sure to be a cracking atmosphere in Podgorica. That will make it tough for the Danes and Montenegro have much more about them than they really get credit for and they look capable of edging this.

The bookies have Denmark in as short as 21/20 for the win but that looks a very short price for numerous reasons. Montenegro’s victory in Copenhagen in the reverse fixture would certainly be one. They put in a fine defensive display that day to win 1-0 and they are strong at the back with Atletico Madrid’s Stefan Savic spearheading their rear-guard effort.

Montenegro have the joint best defensive record in this group with only 0.875 goals per game conceded on average. They also are typically very tough to beat at home with many more established sides struggling to win in Podgorica during their short time as an independent country. They’ve won 3 of their 4 home games during this campaign with a 1-0 victory over Romania their latest success.

Denmark had a fantastic September with a 4-0 win over Poland backed up by another 4 goals in Armenia, with midfielder Thomas Delaney scoring four times across the two fixtures. He’d never scored an international goal prior to that and Denmark’s record as a whole in recent years has been pretty poor so those results came out of the blue to some extent.

They have a youthful side and one that could develop into a very good one. However it’s questionable whether they are yet ready for a huge pressure game in a hostile atmosphere. With just 2 wins in their last 12 away internationals, it’s hard to really fancy them here and backing Double Chance – Montenegro or Draw at 4/5 looks good while odds of 11/4 for Montenegro to win look very long indeed.

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Draw No Bet – Full explanation

Draw No Bet is a type of betting offered by many online bookmakers, became popular among players and is one of the most popular betting options for special bets.

It’s a bet where the draw returns back your stake. If the match you have bet ends in a draw, all your money will be returned to you. No profit, no loss.

Let’s see at an example to understand:

Let’s say that Juventus is playing against Ac Milan, and you think that AC Milan should win. However you feel that this will be a difficult task, so a draw is possible. You can bet on Ac Milan for a Draw No Bet (2 DNB).

If Ac Milan win the game, your bet is a winning one. If the game result is a draw, you’re getting back the money you’ve placed for this bet. In case that Juventus won the match, you lose your bet.

Alternatives

If you want to play Draw No Bet and your bookmaker is not offering that type of bet, you can bet with an alternative way, which is exactly the same:

1. Covering the draw: Play the amount you want on ace or double and an extra bet on the draw of the same amount divided by the odds of the draw.

Example:
Available amount: 100EUR
Match Odds: 1 (3.50) X (3.60) 2 (2.30)
Your estimated prediction: 1X

Divide your amount (25EUR) with the odds of the draw (3.60) (100:3.60=27.78EUR)
So, you should bet 27.78EUR on X, and the rest (72.22EUR) on 1.

In case of draw, you’re getting back all of your money (100EUR), exactly as would happen with Draw No Bet. If the result is 1, you’ll get 72.22 x 3.50=252.77EUR.

2. Asian Handicap 0: Another alternative way to place a DNB bet if it’s not available from your bookie, is by selecting an Asian Handicap (AH 0) bet οn the team you think has the best chances to win.

DNB Odds – Explained

The odds that bookmakers offer on Draw no bet kind of bets are slightly lower, but this is reasonable. Odds are calculated in a mathematically way that allow bookmakers to hold some profit from the money you bet on X for cover.

In a match with odds 2.40 – 4.00 – 2.40, dnb odds would be like 1.80 – Stake returned – 1.80.

Bookmakers that offer Draw no Bet more often are Bet365 and William Hill .

Below you can see a comparison of the odds provided by these bookmakers for Barcelona   v   Atletico Madrid.

Draw No Bet – Full explanation - Bet365
Draw No Bet – Full explanation – Bet365
Draw No Bet – Full explanation - williamhill
Draw No Bet – Full explanation – William Hill

Conclusion

Draw no bet is a good way for punters to protect themselves, especially for those who have patience and want a safer kind of bet. About 25% of the matches finish in Draw.

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Over Under Betting

Over Under betting is based on the total goals of a game. Generally in football, the bookmakers set 2.5 goal as the line and the punters choose Under 2.5 goals (no-score, 1 goal and 2 goals) or Over 2.5 goals (3 goals or more).

There is no draw (push) possibility for this bet. It means you will win or lose your stake at the end of 90 minute time. You have 50% chance to win the bet. No extra-time or penalty shoot outs after 90 minute counts for this type of bet.

Football Over Under 2.5 goals example

Arsenal v Charlton -> Under 2.5 Goals = @1.95 | Over 2.5 Goals = @1.90

* Consider that you bet 100 on Under 2.5 goals. If the game ends with 0,1 or 2 goals in total at the end of 90 minutes, your stake will return as 195.

It means you have 195-100 = 95 profit. If the game ends with 3 or more goals in total, you lose your stake.

For some games, the bookmakers offer under/over 3 goals. It means you will get your stake back if the game ends with 3 goals.
Over 1.5 & Under 1.5 goals have the same logic.
Over 2 & Under 2 goals returns your stake back if the final score is exactly 2 goals.

Basketball Over Under betting

It is the same with any other sports. However, the lines are different from soccer. Lets examine a basketball game.

Miami v San Antonio – Under 170 = @1.91 – Over 170 = @1.91

* Consider that you bet 100 on Under 170. If the game ends with any score under 170 total, your stake will return as 191. It means you have 191-100 = 91 profit.

If the game ends with more than 170 points, you lose your stake. If the game ends with exact 170 points, it means the bet is a push and no wager. You get your stake back.

In the NBA games, extra-times counts for this bet. However, some of the bookies do not count in the extra times for Euro Basket games. Be aware of this when you are thinking of betting on Under / Over. Read the rules of bookmaker carefully.

As a conclusion over/under betting is a good tool for Sport Arbitrage. Learn more about Arbitrage.

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Odds probability

In fact, when we calculate all the possible outcomes of the match, it equals to 100%. It is not more or less than 100%. However, when we calculate the odds of “ANY” bookmaker, we can see that the odds offers more than 100%. Bookmakers grab their own winning percents from your stake. How? Lets see..

Example:

Manchester Utd vs Leicester 1.40 – 3.75 – 7.00

Home win probability: 1 / 1.40 = 71.4%
Draw probability: 1 / 3.75 = 26.6%
Away win probability: 1 / 7.50 = 14.2%

71.4 + 26.6 + 14.2 = 112.2%

It means you confirm that you lost 12.2% on average before the kick of the match for this example. It may vary from bookie to bookie or match to match. Some bookies may take about 10% for soccer and 5% for basketball and some take %15 for basketball and 5% for soccer. This is up to your bookie.

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Odds conversion – Decimal, Fractional and US odds explained

There are three types of odds. We-The Europeans are very familiar to Decimal (i.e, @2.05). And some of us are familiar to Fractional or USA. Some bookmakers offer USA odds and do not offer its converted type into Decimal. As a result of it, it becomes very hard work to calculate them and some of us can understand what +110 means as Decimal while he is preparing his coupon. Here we try to examine the calculation of each conversion. It is a bit long but give it a chance.

Decimal Odds

(1.20, 2.30, 10.00, etc.)

People are familiar to Decimal more than the others. Lets examine a sample to understand better. *Say a bookmaker offers @2.30 for a team to win the game and you bet 100$ on that team at @2.30. If that team wins the game, you get 230$ (including the stake) back. Your profit is 230$ – 100$ = 130$.

US Odds

(+100, -135, +300, etc.)

The ones who bet on US Sports are familiar to these. There are two types of US odds such as positive and negative. The mentalities are different.

Positive:

Positive odds may have plus (+) in front of the numbers (such as +100, +135, +300, etc). Suppose a bookmaker offers +150 for a team to win the game and you bet 100$ on it. If the team wins, you will get 250$ including your stake. Here the mentality is:

Stake 100$ to make 150 profit + 100$ stake back or Stake 100$ to make (positive number)$ profit + 100$ stake back

Formula:

Decimal = (Positive US + 100) / 100

Lets calculate the example above; we staked 100$ to win at +150.

( 150 + 100 ) / 100 = 2.50

Negative:

Negative odds always have minus (-) in front of the number. Suppose a bookmaker offers -120 for a team to win the game. Here, the mentality is the exact opposite. The mentality is:

Stake 120$ to make 100$ profit + 120$ stake back or Stake (negative number)$ to make 100$ profit + negative number)$ stake back

Formula:

Decimal = (Negative US + 100) / Negative US

Lets calculate the example above; we staked 100$ on the team.

Here we ignore the minus (-).

( 120 + 100 ) / 120 = 1.83

Fractional Odds

(5/4, 12/7, 7, etc.)

This is also known as UK Odds. It is too easy to understand and calculate. The mentality is:

Profit/Stake

For example, a bookie offers 5/4 for a team to win a game. Stake 5x to make 4x profit and 5x stake back. Say you bet 100$ on the team to win at 5/4. It means if the team wins, you will have 225$ including the stake. Take a look at the formula below:

Formula: (First Number + Second Number) / Second number

Lets calculate the example above; we staked 100$ on the team.

(5+4)/4=2.25

As a result, you will get 225$ back for your 100$ stake..

If you see only one number as fractional (like 2, 5, 12, etc.), add 1 into the number and you will have the offer.

For example, a bookie offers 4 for a team to win a game. It means stake 1x to make 4x profit. If you put 100$ on the team and the team you bet wins, you get 500$ back.

4+1=5.00

As a result of, you will get 500$ back for your 100$ stake.

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