Extended Martingale Betting System

Martingale betting system

In our site we have explained in details the Martingale Betting System.

The system, which we are going to explain in this article, shall be read as an extension of the Martingale System. If you haven’t read yet please read here.

As a summary of the Martingale we can say that this betting system is based on doubling the stake after each lost up to the moment when we will have a winning bet. End than we start from the beginning.

Expressed on a tabular way will look like this:

No. Bet Sequence Stake Tot.stake Odd Result Expecting +/-
1 Bet No.1 1 1 2.0 Win 2.0 1
2 Bot No.2 1 1 2.0 Loose 2.0 -1
3 Bet No.3 2 3 2.5 Loose 5.0 -3
4 Bet No.4 4 7 2.2 Win 8.8 1.8
5 Bet No.5 1 1 2.6      

The extended Martingale System follows the same strategy but change the multiplier.

The multiplier is the increasing factor of the stake and on this betting system will be calculated taking in consideration the current Odd and a fixed profit.

The odd (O) is different and is depending on the selected match.

The profit (P) will be determined by 3 factors:

  1. Your Budget. (B)
  2. Number of sequence. (i)
  3. Minimum Odd (will be used 2 as per normal Martingale System)

Lets express the formula:

P = B /(2^(i-1)*2-1)

Example:

B = 1000 € , I = 5 rounds

P = 1000/(2^(5-1)*2-1)= 32.26 € Lets round P = 30 €

Next step is to determine the first stake (S).

The stake is depending on the odd and the expected profit.

S = P/(O-1)

Example

P = 30 € , O = 2.50, S = 30/(2.5-1) = 20 €

From this point and forward on any win we start from the first stake. In case of loose the next stake will be calculated as follows:

Sn= (P+Sum(previous Stakes))/(O-1)

Example

Lets consider we have lost 2 consecutive stakes

Stake 1

P = 30 € , O = 2.50, S1 = 30/(2.5-1) = 20 €                                Lost

P = 30 € , O = 2.20, S2 = (30+20)/(2.2-1) = 41.6 €                   Lost

P = 30 € , O = 2.30, S3 = (30+20+41.6)/(2.3-1) = 70.5 €        Won

Total stake is 70.5+41.6+20 = 132.1 €

Return from last stake will be 70.5*2.3=162.15

So the profit is 30 € equal to expected profit.

That’s all my friends. I know that’s look a bit difficult and complicated but it’s a good system to manage your pocket when using progressive systems.

As conclusion there are some recommendations to follow

  1. Find odds bigger than 2.1 preferable draw matches (odd around 3.0)
  2. Stick to your budget and fix your stop loos.
  3. If you are not familiar with arithmetic’s use the excel file. Download here.

 

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Sure bet guide

You win in any case via a sure bet for sure as the name talks itself. It is based on following bookmakers odds and finding out a possible outcome over %100 outcome. Sometimes some of the bookmakers offer mad offers for a team and the others offers low odds for the same team. Take a look at example.

Sure Bet Example

Bookmaker A offers:

Game – Trabzon vs Rize
Home Win – 1.50
Draw – 3.75
Away Win – 4.75

Bookmaker B offers:

Game – Trabzon vs Rize
Home Win – 1.75
Draw – 3.20
Away Win – 4.00

Bookmaker C offers:

Game – Trabzon vs Rize
Home Win – 1.35
Draw – 3.50
Away Win – 7.00 **

We see Trabzon v Rize game offers from Bookmaker A, B and C above. Bookmaker A offers the best for Draw, Bookmaker B offers the best for Home Win and Bookmaker C offers the best for Away Win.

Home Win: 1.75
Draw: 3.75
Away Win: 7.00

We need a short calculation. We want to win 100$ and lets calculate:

======================================================
Home: 100$ / 1.75 = 57.14$ must be wagered to win 100$
Draw: 100$ / 3.75 = 26.67$ must be wagered to win 100$
Away: 100$ / 7.00 = 14.28$ must be wagered to win 100$

Total wagered money: 57.14$ + 26.67$ + 14.28$ = 98.09$
======================================================

Finally we staked 98.09$ to win 100$ in any case. It does not matter the game ends tie, home win or away win. Our profit is 1.91$. It means %1.94 profit of the total wagered money. As you can see above, sure bet offers you profit in any case. However, you have to follow the odds and know the limits of your bookmakers.

Your profit must be more than the fees you pay for money transfers or taxes.

If you want to learn more about this read this article or you can download here the full PDF Book.

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Arbitrage Boot Camp

Arbitrage Boot Camp

What is Sports Arbitrage?

Arbitrage is the process of finding advantages of price differentials.

In sport terms, arbitrage involves betting on all possible outcomes of a sporting event, exploiting high odds from bookmakers to guarantee a profit. The situation occurs when both bookmakers have sufficiently high odds on each side of an event. You place a bet covering all outcomes of the game, and are guaranteed a profit. Arbitrage situations happen regularly, hundreds of times every day. Online sports arbitrage trading has existed for almost a decade, and a lot of people have made (and still are making) good money from it.

How does it work?

The easiest way to explain an arbitrage is with an example.

The simplest example is an event with only two possible outcomes, such as a tennis game or goal over under soccer game. In all of this events will be a winner.

Lets take an example of a Over/Under 2.5 soccer game (See explanation of type of game here)

Type of Bet Bet365 odd 10Bet odd
Over 2.5 1.85 1.65
Under 2.5 1.85 2.20

What we need to do is to compare the highest odds of both bookmakers. On this case for over 2.5 we take Bet365 odd 1.85 and for under we use 10Bet odd 2.20 . If we have a 500 Euro budget we split our money investment on both bets following the steps:

  1. Calculate Arbitrage Percentage
  2. Calculate individual bets
  3. Calculate profit

Step 1 Calculation:

100/Odd

In our example

Bet on Over will be 100/1.850 = 54.05% ,Bet on under will be 100/2.20 = 45.45% and total Arbitrage percentage will be 54.05+45.45=99.5%

Step 2 Calculation:

(Investment*Individual Percentage)/Total Arbitrage Percentage

In our example

Bet on Over will be 500* 54.05%/99.5% = 271.61 Euro  ,Bet on under will be 500* 45.45%/99.5% = 228.39 Euro.In total 500 Euro as per budget.

Step 3 Calculation:

(Investment/Total Percentage)-Investment

In our example

500/99.5% – 500 = 2.51 Euro

Why isn’t everyone doing it?

Until now, the existing tools have been very difficult to use (and to be honest very poor quality). A sport arbitrage opportunity doesn’t exist for very long, usually between 1 to 10 minutes. This mean that it’s crucial that you get as close to real-time odds as you can from the bookmakers, It’s not much worth to get “free arbitrage text messages” for instance.

However now there are a lot of real opportunities to archive a good arbitrage service. One of the best Arbitrage software which we recommend is Rebel Betting Arbitrage Software.

Earnings

You can expect to make up to 15% per month of your total arbitrage bankroll.

If you want to learn more about Arbitrage you can download here the full PDF Book.

 

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Fibonacci Betting Strategy

Fibonacci Betting Strategy

The Fibonacci betting strategy in soccer is based on the idea of betting on a draw, and if you lose your soccer bet, then wager on the next one.

The repeated approach to this strategy plays out until you win. But there are two critical rules to follow:

  1. Bet on a soccer draw when the statistical probability is above 2.5
  2. Increase your stake that follows the Fibonacci sequence of 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and so forth.

The betting principle here comes from the theory that the soccer draw is the most difficult for online sportsbooks and bookmakers to predict the outcome…thus its much easier to be exploited.

Like other similar sports betting strategies, the principle holds that as long as you continually increase your stake, any win will overcome the previous losses.

Fibonacci Betting Strategy

The principle of the Fibonacci betting strategy can be demonstrated by looking at the soccer statistics.
On the current season until now
23% of the England Premier League matches finish in draw.
25% of the Spanish Primera Division matches finish in draw.
27% of the Italian Serie A matches finish in draw.
30% of the French League 1 matches finish in draw.

This equates to a 26.25% ratio of soccer matches that ended in a draw. Coincidentally the betting odds for a draw in all these games were above the 2.5 level.

Thus on average there should be a sports bet win every four games. This means the stake would be the fourth Fibonacci number, 5.

Applying Fibonacci 5, and a total bet of £10 for each match (noting this is the winning stake added to the lost three stakes before it: 1, 1, and 3).

If you look at the data, the average odds for a draw over this season was 4.203. This equates to the average winnings would be £21.02 (£5 stake multiplied by the odds), and an investment profit of £11.02 when the stakes have been subtracted.

Based on this data, then over those 380 games it equates to a theoretical profit of £1786.7. Not bad profit considering an initial wager of £1.

Weaknesses of the Fibonacci Strategy

With all sports betting systems come their drawbacks, and with the Fibonacci betting system it also offers its limitations.

The first drawback is a given; the number of soccer matches that are played throughout a season concurrently. This means there is little to no option to raise your stake to the following Fibonacci number if a tie or draw occurs. Rather, the sports investor or punter could apply a Fibonacci betting sequence to individuals teams or some other statistical frequency.

The results of this drawback may cause lengthy losing streaks in between matches with a draw, putting a large dent in the sports investors or punters bankroll balance.

For example, the longest streak in the Premier League without a draw was 20 games (Man U 2008/09) finally closing in on a zero – zero draw against Arsenal.

You can see the weakness of this betting system, but for those who stuck through the thick and thin and applied the Fionacci soccer betting system to these matches, you would have netted a winnings of £44,878.60, or a profit of £16.222.60 (having placed a  £10,946 wager on the match with 4.10 odds on a draw.

How the Fibonacci Betting System Works

The Fibonacci betting system sequence is one of the most widely known numeric sequences in mathematics, characterized by a simple formula:

N3 = N1 + N2

This formula shows that after the two starting numbers, each additional number in the sequence is the sum of the two preceding numbers.

For example, the betting system sequence begins 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, and 21. A quick review of the at the start of the sequence, looks like this:

  • N1 = 1, N2 = 1, and therefore N3 = 2
  • N1 = 1, N2 = 2, and therefore N3 = 3
  • N1 = 2, N2 = 3, and therefore N3 = 5
  • N1 = 3, N2 = 5, and therefore N3 = 8

Does the Fibonacci betting system work for soccer investing?

Like the Fibonacci sequence itself, the betting strategy is commonly known as a mathematical approach to sports investing.
But with the Fibonacci system, a major differentiator is in its approach as a progressive betting system. There are a number of progressive betting systems used today to bet on soccer and produce soccer tips, but in this case this popular soccer betting system works extremely well with a large bankrolls and unlimited limits. But this is not the case for the majority of punters in the market.

Albeit this betting system is constrained in its methodology when considering these factors, it does like all soccer and sports betting systems succumb to the same unpredictability as all betting systems in the real world of sports investing and betting – the unknown outcome of future events.

The limits this places on the sports investor and punter, whether due to bankroll limitations or barriers an online sportsbook places on the size of wager required from frequency of historical wagers, this soccer betting system will eventually churn out a win.

My viewpoint as a soccer betting system to employ in a sports investment strategy, I’d limit a small portion of my bankroll to try the Fibonacci sequence. But unlike other preferred betting strategies to employ, the Fibonacci is not a long term profitable investment strategy.

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Martingale betting system

Martingale betting system

Martingale system is invented by casinos. This wagering system is based on doubling your money after each loser bet and turning back to the first step after each winner bet. For instance, you staked 10$ on a %50 chance bet with 2.00 odds. If you lose the bet, you place X2 of your previous stake. You lose the 2nd bet too? So, you go on doubling your stakes until you win a bet.

Martingale strategy example

Lets assume that you are expecting a profit of 10$.

STEP 1 1st Bet – Stake 10$ = Lost
STEP 2 2nd Bet – Stake 20$ = Lost
STEP 3 3rd Bet – Stake 40$ = Lost
STEP 4 4th Bet – Stake 80$ = Lost
STEP 5 5th Bet – Stake 160$ = WON (So, we go back to the first step = 10$)
STEP 1 6th Bet – Stake 10$ = WON (We won again. It means we go on with first step)
STEP 1 7th Bet – Stake 10$ Lost (We jump on Step 2 for next bet
STEP 2 and so on.

As you can see above, we won the 5th Bet and our profit will be 160$-(10+20+40+80)$ = 10$. It is the rule of Martingale strategy. You get the same profit after any win anywhere. We won the 6th Bet too. Our profit is 10$ again after this winner bet. If we cannot win until 7th Bet, our total wager will be 1270$ (10$+20$+40$+80$+160$+320$+640$). Losing 7 in a row is not impossible and I am sure it can happen to even very best punters in long term.

The martingale strategy is mostly used on roulette, betting on colours and is based on probability which theoretically is 50%.(only for a large number of the series)

Conclusion – Why to avoid Martingale

Nevertheless, a lot of punters use this strategy or something based on this as their premier wagering strategy. Maybe they don’t know how it is dangerous. We never suggest our members to use this system. This is absolutely non-sense and any bookmaker is absolutely happy when his members use this. In long term, there is no possibility to win money by Martingale.

Bookmakers have their wager limits and they will not let you wager more than limits or you will bankrupt without a final winner bet.

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